DGCA Continues To Protect Kingfisher With Latest Moves

The DGCA, India’s aviation safety regulator, has continued to turn a blind eye to Kingfisher Airlines with its recent moves. Despite being able to cancel/suspend the license of Kingfisher, the mantra of the agency under Aviation Minister Ajit Singh has been that the airline cannot be shut down until they get down to 5 aircraft or less in the fleet or have a serious safety lapse.

With Kingfisher down to 10 operational aircraft, not having paid staff in over 6 months, and being continually crippled by ongoing staff agitations, it seems a miracle that the airline is still around. And with no money to pay engineers or buy spare parts, it’s even more incredible that the aircraft are still flying.

The DGCA is expected increase technical surveillance of carriers under financial pressure as per ICAO regulations. But instead of doing that, the DGCA has cancelled the daily technical surveillance ordered by former DGCA EK Bharat Bhushan, citing “cost issues.” The safety audit performed over the last few weeks by the DGCA will be used to “suggest remedial course of action to the airline” instead of taking punitive measures over safety issues.

But the strangest move yet came when the DGCA has sought comments on changing the title of a Civil Aviation Requirement (CAR) to remove the phrase “Assessment of Impact of Financial Stress on Safety of Operations.” To be clear, the DGCA is suggesting that financial stress be removed from what the DGCA monitors.

These kinds of moves seem like they are clearly intentioned to protect Kingfisher, which owes thousands of crores to AAI, oil companies, banks, and more.

However, Vijay Mallya will have to learn for himself a simple truth in aviation – safety is expensive, but an accident is far worse.

SpiceJet’s International Expansion Plans Continue

In the month and a half since I discussed Spicejet’s Rapid Expansion Plans, the carrier has steadily continued planning international routes.

SpiceJet brought its 4th international destination online when it commenced nonstop service from Delhi to Kabul on 737 aircraft this month. In addition, the flights to Guangzhou and Riyadh from Delhi are expected to come online by October.

SpiceJet has also expressed interest to fly from Delhi to Dhaka, continuing on to Yangon. This would make SpiceJet the only Indian LCC serving Bangladesh, and the only private carrier serving Burma. Ministry approval is still awaited on this route.

Finally, SpiceJet has clarified that the service to Male it proposed would be from Trivandrum, and would be on the carrier’s short range Q400 aircraft. Trivandrum-Male-Trivandrum is served by the flag carriers of both India and the Maldives (Air India and Maldivian respectively). It features on the list of most profitable routes for Air India as well.

With international expansion to unusual destinations continuing at a brisk pace, SpiceJet seems to have its strategy laid out clearly. Hopefully, it will work out well for the carrier.

 

Jet Airways May Not Join Star Alliance After All

 

The alliance saga of the carriers of India continues…

After Star Alliance formally invited Jet Airways, and Air India got out of the way, it seemed like Jet Airways joining Star was just a matter of time.

But, this morning, a major Indian newspaper published an article titled “Jet Airways may not join Star Alliance” -

Star Alliance, the world’s largest airline alliance, may not get any member airline from India — one of the world’s largest growing aviation market.

After the 27-strong member alliance rejected Air India’s application for a membership, Jet Airways, who is in talks with the alliance, may decide against joining the group.

“We are talking to all three alliances and may not join Star Alliance because they already have a strong member in this side of the world,” said a senior Jet executive on condition of anonymity.

The Naresh Goyal-promoted airline is also in talks with global alliances Oneworld and SkyTeam.

“We do not know how much will we benefit by joining the alliance with Singapore already a member. There is a thinking that the benefits will not be much from Star Alliance and our talks with the other two airline alliances is also on,” he said.

Now, I’m not exactly sure what Jet Airways is trying to accomplish with this. Are they trying to get a better deal from Star? Are they actually choosing a different alliance? Are they totally confused, just like we are?

It is no secret that Singapore Airlines is a member of Star Alliance. They joined over a decade ago – not yesterday. And on the other hand, what is so special about Singapore? Thai and Lufthansa also have comprehensive Indian networks… And in other alliances, Cathay, SriLankan, and Malaysia Airlines (oneworld) also serve many Indian gateways. And SkyTeam has lots of Asian carriers as well.

There’s no doubt that Jet should look at all its options, but this is getting ridiculous. At this rate, there won’t be any Indian carriers in alliances even a decade from now.

Ethiopian Airlines 787 Drops By in BOM

Today, Ethiopian Airlines’ 787 (registered ET-AOQ) dropped by in Mumbai as part of its “world tour.”

ET-AOQ is given the watercannon salute in front of the Air India hangars.

Other destinations which it will touch on the “world tour” include Dubai, Frankfurt, London, and Rome.

Lufthansa’s Next 747-8i Destination: Bangalore

This isn’t new news, but a firm date is finally available for this service.

From September 13 2012, service between Bangalore and Frankfurt will be on Lufthansa’s brand new 747-8i aircraft, sporting Lufthansa’s newest product.

This is just one of the many steps Lufthansa has taken to improve its product on Indian routes. Lufthansa has also:

  • Launched service to Delhi on 747-8i (August 6)
  • Opened a new lounge at Delhi Terminal 3 (August 13)
  • Announced retrofit A330 (with new Business Class) on Munich-Mumbai route (September 2)
  • Continued adding PTVs in Economy Class to 747-400s serving India (continuous)

Looks like Lufthansa is really buckling down and trying to capture more of the Indian market.

Maldivian Adds Additional Service to India

Last week, Maldivian, the state-owned flag carrier of the Maldives, announced that it will add service from its hub in Male to Mumbai and Chennai. The flights will operate 3 times weekly.

The flights will commence along with Maldivian’s new Dhaka route in November, when Maldivian’s leased A320 enters revenue service. The aircraft will be configured in a 14 business class/138 economy class seating configuration.

The flights to Mumbai will operate on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday, while the flights to Chennai will operate on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.

Mumbai and Chennai will be Maldivian’s second and third gateways into India – the carrier already serves Trivandrum twice daily from Male with its existing fleet of Bombardier Dash 8 Q200/Q300 turboprops. These aircraft do not have the necessary range to fly to a destination further than Trivandrum in India, prompting the order of the larger aircraft.

The only other carrier which serves India-Maldives sector nonstop is Air India, which serves Male from Bangalore and Trivandrum. Significant competition also comes from SriLankan Airlines, which handles a lot of connecting traffic on this route through its Colombo hub.

Service to Male is also expected by Spicejet in the near future – it is unclear whether SG plans to use its 737s or its Q400s on these upcoming services.

 

Kingfisher Pilots Plan To Continue Weekend Strike

Kingfisher Airlines cancelled over 25 flights this weekend as pilots held a flash agitation over the non-payment of salaries. To put that number into perspective, Kingfisher only operates about 30 flights each day.

Pilots had been assured that one-month’s pay would be provided on Friday. However, the payment (unsurprisingly) never arrived. Flights from Mumbai were most affected by the agitation.

This strike comes shortly after Kingfisher revealed its atrocious Q1 financial performance. Its net margin was less than -300%! Obviously not a sustainable situation..

On the bright side, with pilots planning to continue this strike, we can look forward to another letter from Vijay Mallya :P

Implementation of Dharmadhikari Report Begins; Management Integration Lists Posted

The implementation of the Dharmadhikari Report has finally begun, with the release of the integrated seniority lists of Middle Management, Lower level Management, and Grade I and II workers. Upper level management integration already was carried out earlier in the merger process.

Seniority lists of almost 4,500 officers of non-technical cadres in various departments have been uploaded onto AI’s internal website. Employees have the next ten days to voice complaints about anomalies in the list.

The merged seniority lists of pilots and engineers have not been completed yet due to “technical issues.”

It’s a testament to the sad state of affairs at the company that this step is only being taken five years after the merger. The human resources mess has led to strikes by the ex-Indian Airlines pilot union ICPA, the ex-Air India pilot union IPG, and sparked widespread protest throughout the company.

Information can be found on the IPG’s position and the ICPA’s position. Even in management, similar trends can be found – Air India was very tight fisted with seniority promotions, while Indian Airlines was very generous. The Dharmadhikari Report does not take this into account when suggesting how to integrate human resources, leading to friction over seniority issues.

How Air India Can Better be Utilized to Fulfill Strategic Objectives

Air India is much maligned for its poor state of affairs. It loses a staggering amount of money each year, due to political interference, a bloated and inefficient workforce, corruption, and incompetence/mismanagement.

Political interference manifests itself in many ways. Firstly, Air India deals with incredible inefficiency because of the procedures it must deal with as a PSU. A timeless read on this topic is Jitender Bhargava’s “The Cost of Being a PSU.” A good example of this cost is the recent Boeing 787 fiasco. Delays due to various ministries are not acceptable. If the government expects Air India to be run as a business, it must be permitted to act as a business. Once the board has approved compensation and delivery, the matter should be finished.

Political interference can also be found in Air India’s route choices, Air India’s lack of freedom in hiring/firing employees (hence bloated and inefficient workforce), and corruption throughout the system. A recent audit report on the corruption in the Ministry of Civil Aviation can be found here. It is really mind numbing to see how much Air India is hurt by government corruption.

However, Air India is unlikely to be privatized in the near future for a few reasons. Firstly, it’s unlikely that a private investor would want to touch AI in the condition it is in. And secondly, it’s unlikely that the government mantris will want to give up one of their playthings. So, with the reality of state-ownership set in, the government should look at how the Maharaja can be better utilized to fulfill State objectives.

Air India already does carry out many functions for the government. Air India is extensively used for armed forces and government charters. The president of India flies exclusively on Air India, and AI does not get compensated properly for such flights. Government estimates show that current president Pratibha Patil’s travels have costed Air India almost 170 crores. Air India is also required to keep slack in the schedule for last minute government routing changes, a significant cost to AI.

However, there are ways in which the government can take advantage of Air India’s capabilities without destroying AI’s profitability. In order to better understand some of these possibilities, we can look at 2 better-run flag carriers – Air China, and Turkish Airlines.

Air China is the official flag carrier and one of many state-owned carriers in China. The airline is, according to the Chinese government, the largest airline in the world by market capitalization, and the most profitable carrier in the world. It is extremely difficult to believe the latter, since Air China is rather inefficient, and it doesn’t command very high yields. Regardless, Air China is doing far better than our own Air India, and there are some lessons that can be learned from it.

Any airline’s biggest asset is its route network. Commercial air service has a variety of positive benefits – it increases both economic and political ties between the cities served, and can be of great strategic value.

Air China serves many routes which serve a strategic purpose. The most notable is service on the Beijing-Pyongyang sector – Air China is the only non-DPRK carrier to fly to DPRK. This service strengthens ties between the Chinese and North Korean governments and economies, and helps China keep its neighbors close. Air China also serves Ulaan Bator, the capital of Mongolia. This destination keeps the Mongols close to the Chinese.

However, destinations don’t need to make less commercial sense to have strategic importance. Air China’s services to neighbors like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam all are very profitable in addition to their strategic importance.

The Chinese state-owned carriers not only keep their own neighbors close, but they also project China’s diplomatic power throughout the world. Apart from Bhutan (which only Bhutanese carriers serve), every neighbor of India has service by a Chinese carrier, an important part of China’s strategy to surround India with allies.

Strategic interests aren’t just important internationally – Air China’s destinations domestically also work to facilitate rapid and comprehensive domestic connectivity, and to bring prosperity to less developed areas. Tibet and Xinjiang, the two areas of China which are seperatist, have lots of air service, helping integrate the areas with the rest of the country.

The route network which Air China and the Chinese state-owned carriers have built helps fulfill strategic foreign policy and domestic objectives, and demonstrates how state-owned carriers can be utilized well by their governments.

Another example of a carrier which is utilized by its government well is Turkish Airlines. Unlike Air China or Air India, Turkish is only partly state-owned – 51% of the airline is in private hands. This partial privatization helps cut down on inefficiency and corruption, but still allows the government to utilize the carrier in an effective way.

Turkish’s route network contains a variety of routes of strategic importance. The airline serves every Middle Eastern country, bringing Turkey closer to other Arabic countries. Turkish also serves quite a few EU destinations, notably in Germany. This brings Turkey closer to the European countries which Turkey wants to partner with.

However, what is most remarkable about Turkish’s route network is how they have linked with countries which Turkey has declared of national strategic importance. Turkey has been working to import raw materials and develop infrastructure in Africa. Turkish not only serves all the major African destinations, like Accra, Addis Ababa, Johannesburg, Cairo, Dakar, Lagos, Khartoum, Tunis, Casablanca, Dar es Salaam, and Tripoli, but it also serves second tier cities too. Turkish serves Sabha, Benghazi, and Misrata (Libya), Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Kinshasa (Congo), Kigali (Rwanda), Mogadishu (Somalia), and Entebbe (Uganda) from its hub in Istanbul, strengthening business and political ties and increasing cultural diffusion (improving soft power).

Turkish also has a very impressive Central Asian route network, a region which India has been working on developing stronger ties with. Almaty and Astana (Kazakhstan), Baku, Ganja, and Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan), Batumi and Tbilisi (Georgia), Bishkek and Osh (Kyrgyztan), Dushanbe (Tajikistan), Tashkent (Uzbekistan), Ashgabat (Turkmenistan), and Ulanbator (Mongolia) are all destinations in the Turkish Airlines network.

After seeing how well other countries use their flag carriers as a tool, we can come back home and compare to Air India. Commercial air service can be used to further India’s “Look East” and other international development policies.

Air India already attempts to tailor its route network to serve the government’s wishes. Its low cost subsidiary, Air India Express, serves migrant gulf traffic returning home. The carrier has been very successful with the goal, with high load factors. Air India also serves 2 cities of significant strategic interest from its legacy Indian Airlines network – Kabul and Yangon. However, even these cities are underserved (Yangon is only served twice weekly).

In contrast to the limited routes of strategic value, Air India wastes lots of money on politically mandated prestige routes. A loss of $60 million each year is posted on Air India’s route to Toronto, yet the route is continued due to political pressure. Politicians want service to Chicago, not Congo, despite the fact that the latter would be a far more useful destination.

It’s time that Air India takes a look at the fundamentals of how it crafts its route network. There is no dearth of carriers who can take you from Toronto to Delhi, and the traffic which flies that route is likely to fly regardless of whether Air India is there or not. Where the opportunity for Air India to shine is in routes which require patience and a government cash backstop to develop. Routes which further India’s foreign policy aims and bring new economic partnerships.

Alas, the babus and mantris will likely never realize the golden opportunity which they are missing out on.

Air India Changes Tentative Australia Schedule

AI has changed the schedule once again in recent tenders.

The original schedule:

Flight No. Departure Arrival Aircraft Days
AI 312 DEL 01:40 SYD 18:15 77L/77W/787 12-4-6-
AI 312 SYD 19:45 MEL 21:20 77L/77W/787 12-4-6-
AI 311 MEL 22:55 DEL 06:35* 77L/77W/787 12-4-6-
AI 316 DEL 23:15 MEL 15:40* 77L/77W/787 -2-4-6-
AI 311 MEL 17:20 SYD 18:50 77L/77W/787 –3-5-7
AI 311 SYD 20:30 DEL 04:25* 77L/77W/787 –3-5-7

However, in recent tenders, AI 316/311 have been cancelled, and AI 312 has been made daily:

Flight No. Departure Arrival Aircraft Days
AI 312 DEL 01:40 SYD 19:15 77L/77W/787 DAILY
AI 312 SYD 20:45 MEL 22:15 77L/77W/787 DAILY
AI 311 MEL 23:45 DEL 06:55+1 77L/77W/787 DAILY

This schedule barely leaves enough time to operate the AI 115/116 rotation to London in between the MEL/SYD flight. AI might choose to operate DEL-LHR-DEL in between the DEL-SYD-MEL-DEL rotation, but I’m not sure where maintenance would be scheduled in…

Regardless, it seems likely that AI 115/116 (morning departure to LHR) will be returning this year, to facilitate Kangaroo traffic connections.

This new schedule also gets rid of the crew scheduling problems which would be created by operating a reverse-triangle type routing schedule.